COP15 ARTICLES: There is not Planet “B”

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER ON 14TH DECEMBER 2009

With the support of different events organized in other parts of the world, an estimated number of 100.000 demonstrators marched on Saturday from the Copenhagen city centre to the heavily fortified Convention centre where climate talks have been celebrating. The gathering was mostly festive in spite of different groups that tried to alter the peaceful sense of the march.

Most of the participants bore slogans related to global warming and calls for action of world leaders in other to resolve the vast differences that until now have been expressed in the different meetings. Clear messages, full of sense and love, oriented to raise a common concern that could change the negotiations and the way the world is moving towards an unprecedented climate crisis.

Meanwhile, and with no meetings scheduled for Sunday, talks will restart on Monday with delegations completely structured around their top officials. Until now, parties had mainly repeated their “well-known positions”. The European Union is one of the negotiating blocks that defend a single agreement. Developing countries defend a two tracks agreement – Kyoto Protocol with deep emissions cuts for the rich countries and a less binding accord for the poor- differing of the European proposal as they consider that this could mean an evasion of the historical responsibility by developed countries as mayor emitters of greenhouse gases since the XIX century. On the other hand, and as the United States will not ratified Kyoto Protocol with the rest of develop countries, most of the developing countries are not willing to assume binding commitments, especially emergent economies as China, India or Brazil, without a clear leadership of industrialized countries.

With little movement during the first week on some of the key issues, many delegates were thinking about the way forward: “We must work hard so that by this time next week, we can celebrate a fair and ambitious agreement: the momentum generated for this conference is simply unprecedented and far too valuable to lose,” commented one slightly concerned but determined party.

COP15 ARTICLES: A LONG AND HARD WAY OF LEARNING

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER. 13 DECEMBER 2009

Let’s imagine that climates change talks are an envelope, in which its forehead it’s written “environment”, “climate change” or lets say “the future of human civilization”. But, when we open it, surprisingly it can be see that what is inside the envelope is a full range of figures, commitments and financial agreements that are, in fact, talking about world economy and trade.

Because may be, climate talks are just that, economy talks and may be is the only way by which humankind is currently able to face its self-inflicted damage to the earth system. However, understand the future of earth as a single economic issue is causing a deep distrustful and unenthusiastic feeling among participants in the conference.

Thus, and after one week of meetings, a perception among the different participants of the conference, parties, non-governmental organizations, journalist or academics, is the existence of many gaps that impede to give a sense of totality to the negotiations and the whole issue of climate change. A gap between what science says and policymakers; between politicians and society; between what is been saying outside the plenary of the conference and the negotiating parties; between what developed countries offer and developing countries claim. Something is missed. Dessima Williams, Chairman of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) expressed her concerns on this regard: “We must rebalance the way we live… in the field of economy, ecology, ethics… a shift must occur…”

As we wait for the second week and the expected arrival of more than 100 heads of government who own the key for a successful financial agreement in the fields of adaptation, mitigation or technology transfer among others, voices of developing countries start to launch messages that make more understandable the aim of this conference, to improve life of poor people under a sustainable environment: “while you are meeting, I am working in a evacuation plan for my island”, “the grassroots of climate change is the historical responsibility”, “Africa is dying… my house is leaking… we appeal to you to discuss…”, “we appeal to President Obama to act, as President of the Americans,… and the Africans”.

COP15 ARTICLES: Decreasing temperatures, raising tensions in COP15

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER. 10 DECEMBER 2009

While the temperature in Copenhagen is little above freezing, the atmosphere at the Bella Center, venue of COP15, is heating up amid confirmations that more than 100 government heads will attend the high-level segment of the conference on 17-18 December to push for an agreement.

The preliminary findings from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report, which final version is expected in March, have shocked even the biggest alarmist, with the WMO reporting evidence of global warming. Findings suggest that this year is likely to be ranked as one of the hottest 10 since 1850, and with the current decade being also the hottest on record.

 

In contrast, however, top leaders remain optimistic following leaks of the expected final text, which has dominated the every day agenda. But differences among the G77, a group of 130 mostly developing countries, including Syria are growing wider on almost all crucial issues, making it increasingly difficult for the climate talks to produce a consensus. A major division within the group is between poor countries and nations with rapidly evolving economies, but interests also vary between countries with and without oil production and countries with and without large forests.

Regardless, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon optimistically predicted on Tuesday, that a robust agreement to combat climate change will be reached in Copenhagen and implemented immediately. “From all corners of the globe we see unprecedented momentum for a deal,” the UN chief told reporters at UN headquarters. “I’m encouraged and I’m optimistic.”

But leaks in the final text are also playing a role, with the British newspaper “The Guardian” claiming to have an official Danish proposal for a compromise text which “shows deep unease” among G77 block.

COP15 ARTICLES: Saudis economical interests as of the main points for a future success of Copenhagen

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER. 9 DECEMBER 2009

With the America’s Environmental Protection Agency announcing that greenhouse gases are a danger to human health, President Obama has changed his plans for attendance to Copenhagen from the first week of the conference, following his trip to Oslo for tomorrow’s Nobel Prize ceremony, delaying his attendance to the last and decisive days of the conference the 18th of December.

As everything of significance to the treaty is announced late in the meetings, often on the last day, it looks that this change of plans can suggest that a “deal” is already in the bag, and Obama want to be part of a decision and a picture that will mark the beginning of a serious and binding commitment by every world nation in the coming years.

US President ran into office with the clear idea to support green energy in order to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and reduces the use of fossil fuels, also with the objective to gain energetic independence.

However, Obama’s energetic independence objectives have been considered as unrealistic by Saudis and arguments have been confront by the Islamic Kingdom in order to put aside the President’s rhetoric of energy independence and instead recognize interdependence of energy producers and consumers.

With a position considered for many parties involved in the negotiations as harmful and against the general interest aimed to combat global warming and with a “long history of playing an obstructionist role at climate conferences” Saudi Arabia is one of the main players in COP15. Its influence over the rest of Arab countries, and its importance as the first world oil producer, together with its relation with the United States makes of its position one of the determinant factors for a possible success of the negotiations.

Through a quiet campaign during these and other negotiations, Saudis with its lead negotiator Mohammad Al-Sabban has demand, that oil-producing nations get special financial assistance if a new climate pact calls for substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels. Specifically, Saudi Arabia wants access to funds within an existing UN scheme dedicated to combat climate change effects considering that “Adaptation is not only to the impact of climate change but also the impact of climate policies.” This position has raised the critics of the least developing countries which considered Saudi position as unfair with those populations that have not the revenues of oil to fight climate change.

COP15 ARTICLES: COPENHAGEN: LAST CHANCE TO SAVE WORLD CLIMATE

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER. 8 DECEMBER 2009

During the first day of the historic UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, the UN’s top climate change official expressed confidence that the meeting would deliver a comprehensive, ambitious and effective international climate change deal.

After the wave of skepticism which swept the international community in the last few weeks, a fresh enthusiasm has emerged on the inaugural day of the historic UN Climate Change Conference. Yvo de Boer, the UN’s top climate change official expressed confidence that the meeting would deliver a comprehensive and effective climate change deal and praised the numerous emissions targets which have been pledged in the run-up to the summit. 

 “Negotiators now have the clearest signal ever from world leaders t craft solid proposals to implement rapid action, “ de Boer said. There are three courses of action governments must agree on in the coming weeks: implementation of immediate measures; ambitious commitments to cut emissions, and a shared vision on a universal low-emissions future.

There are three layers of action that governments must agree to in the course of the coming two weeks: fast and effective implementation of immediate action on climate change; ambitious commitments to cut and limit emissions, including start-up funding and a long-term funding commitment; and a long-term shared vision on a low-emissions future for all.

For 2010, immediate action have to focused on reducing emissions, adapting to the inevitable effects of climate change, delivering adequate finance, technology, reducing emission from deforestation in developing countries and capacity-building.

Syria is part of the group of developing countries which insist that developed nations, historically responsible for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions, should bear the brunt of responsibility for global warming. Copenhagen provides a good and maybe the only chance for Syria to find sufficient sponsorship and support needed for it to evolve into a modern low carbon economy. A strong political commitment is the key factor underlying the more evident environmental consequences of climate change, such as drought. If Syria can show a willingness, rather than just a need for cooperation, Copenhagen could be just the beginning of a bright future. 
 

EXPERIENCE, CULTURE AND TRADITION FACING CLIMATE CHANGE

WRITTEN IN AUGUST 2009 FOR THE SYRIAN ENGLISH NEWSPAPER "BALADNA"

Nobel prize-winning physicist in 1997 and current US energy secretary, Steven Chu, has a cheap and easy solution to fight climate change. Paint the roofs white and drive "cool" cars on pale-coloured roads.

These proposals were launched in London at the end of last may, in a climate change symposium hosted by Prince Charles and attended by peace, literature, chemistry and physics laureates among other outstanding personalities.

Mr. Chu maintains that clean and pale colors, reflects sunlight and would contribute to fight global warming. He also affirms that if all surfaces around the world were white, it would be reached a Carbon emissions reduction, equivalent to the total amount of emissions that could be obtain if world traffic were forbidden for the next eleven years.

Scientific explanation is based on the capacity of painted surface in clean colors to reflects more solar radiation to the space, and reduce at the same time, the quantity of energy needed for cooling buildings.

Mr. Chu recognizes being influenced by Art Rosenfeld, member of the Energy Commission of California who was also inspired by the traditional Mediterranean architecture, with the terraces and buildings of the Balearic and Greek islands and most of the countries surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea.

Although this proposal is not very original, and probably Mr. Chu or Mr. Rosenfeld are not trying to be specially innovators with this, at least this has a lot of common sense. In this manner, we can find solutions to climate problems that have always being there and are easy to put into practice.

Considering climate change as a real and unavoidable, and in order to face the challenges related, we could consider this proposal as a good starting point for countries suffering extreme weather conditions to think about which role they should take in order to adapt to global warming. At this respect, Arab and Mediterranean countries has much to say on the subject.

The international scientific community working in the study of the adaptation process to environmental changes says that societies have inherent capacities to adapt to climate change. In fact, human adaptation to climate change has to be based in the combination of knowledge of local systems and cultures, with the scientific knowledge.

Examples like white painted roofs can lead us to analyze the history and culture of countries in the Arab and Mediterranean Regions and how, in spite of weather conditions, they have achieve during the centuries a high degree of adaptation and development that could be consider as an example for other world regions that are starting to suffer an increasing temperature.

However, experience, culture, or adaptative capacity has nothing to do without coordination, awareness, open-mindedness or the capacity to understand what climate change is. And, as one of the most important factor, these capacities are bound up in the capacity to act collectively. So, two critical needs in the region are political will for environmental legislation, and the urgency for integrated action among academics, activists, and policy-makers as said Dr. Nadim Farajalla of the American University of Beirut (AUB), faculty director of the new Research and Policy Forum on Climate Change and the Environment in the Arab World.

Thus, Academic-Government-Civil interaction is critical to achieve good policies, strengthen the political will to move in this direct, and learn and implement the societal and cultural deep knowledge that has been accumulated for centuries as some of our ancestors did when they decided to paint their houses white.

Cambio climático y migraciones en América Latina ¿Afrontamos el desafío?

TEXTO APARECIDO EN INTERCAMBIO CLIMATICO EL 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2012

Refugiados climáticos, migraciones inducidas por el medioambiente o migrantes medioambientales son términos que, acuñados por diferentes investigadores y Organismos Internacionales, han recabado un considerable grado de atención por parte de público, medios de comunicación o académicos en los últimos tiempos.

La diversidad de opiniones a la hora de afrontar y definir una terminología común con respecto al desplazamiento de personas por cuestiones medioambientales o climáticas, podrían de algún modo dificultar una aproximación inicial, pero del mismo modo enriquecen la compresión del problema y las respuestas que al mismo se pueden dar.

Ejemplos de esta complejidad pueden ser la ya comentada diversidad de opiniones y definiciones en su conceptualización, variedad en las estimaciones presentes y futuras de desplazados, su carácter forzado o voluntario, su identificación como respuesta a desastres repentinos o a la evolución lenta del cambio ambiental, su carácter interno o transfronterizo, o las dificultades existentes al identificar las causas medioambientales como un factor principal en el desplazamiento o uno mas dentro de una compleja ecuación formada por factores medioambientales, sociales, políticos, económicos o culturales.

Que debe ser enfrentado por parte de las instituciones…

Pero es una realidad que existe, que va en aumento y que parte de la lógica – a mayores consecuencias del cambio climático, mayor impacto sobre las poblaciones humanas.

El Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC, por sus siglas en inglés), identifica tres principales causas que potencialmente pueden llevar a generar un mayor numero de desplazamientos como consecuencia del cambio climático: 1) el aumento de la fuerza de los huracanes tropicales y la frecuencia de las lluvias torrenciales y las inundaciones 2) el aumento de las sequías, con la evaporación del agua contribuyendo a una disminución de la humedad del suelo, a menudo asociada con la escasez de alimentos, y 3) el aumento del nivel del mar resultante a partir de la expansión del agua, así como de la fusión de los hielos polares.

En Latinoamérica identificamos algunas de estas causas:

- Los cambios en los patrones de precipitaciones y la pérdida de los glaciares reducirá significativamente la disponibilidad de agua para el consumo humano, la agricultura y la generación de energía.

- En las zonas secas, la tierra agrícola se volverá mas salada y arenosa, con rendimientos más bajos y una menor productividad del ganado, lo que socavara la seguridad alimentaría.

- En los bosques tropicales, las altas temperaturas y la pérdida de agua subterránea reducirá la biodiversidad, afectando los medios de subsistencia de muchas comunidades indígenas.

- El aumento del nivel del mar provocará más inundaciones en las zonas bajas, y el aumento de la temperatura de las aguas disminuirán las poblaciones de peces.

- O las consecuencias del fenómeno “El Niño” y su fenómeno opuesto “La Niña”.

Entender las migraciones como una respuesta positiva y una estrategia adaptativa al cambio climático es un importante punto de partida a la hora de generar respuestas. El IPCC incide en esta idea considerando que la migración de individuos y comunidades o la reubicación de los asentamientos debe ser una respuesta adaptativa potencial a los impactos del cambio climático.

Y la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático (CMNUCC), traza igualmente este camino desde el Marco de Adaptación de Cancún, y su Artículo 14, párrafo f) que propone a las partes “…la adopción de medidas para mejorar el entendimiento, la coordinación y la cooperación en lo que respecta al  desplazamiento, la migración y el traslado planificado como consecuencia del cambio climático, cuando corresponda,  a nivel  nacional, regional e internacional.”

Que refuerza su importancia con las realidades desde el terreno…

Las evidencias sobre el terreno nos ayudan también en la aproximación al problema y su mejor comprensión en América Latina. Y con una tesis en mente, que nos explique como las desigualdades sociales influyen en la génesis, el carácter y la incidencia, pero también son una consecuencia de los desplazamientos ligados a la degradación medioambiental y al cambio climático.

En América Latina podemos encontrar como una de las zonas mas afectadas es la región Caribeña. Las limitaciones territoriales, los eventos climáticos extremos, las sequías o el aumento del nivel del mar, amenazan en conjunto a las economías y poblaciones más empobrecidas y se añaden como un factor cada vez de mayor importancia a la hora de reforzar, las desigualdades sociales y la tendencia a la migración de sus habitantes.

México es también uno de los países que más sufre, pero que también ofrece un mayor número de estudios sobre los procesos migratorios relacionados con el clima. En el Estado de Chiapas, los factores medioambientales y la negativa influencia del cambio climático estimulan una migración, tanto interna como proveniente de otros países de Centroamérica, que también esta relacionada con factores sociales o económicos, y se traduce en unas relaciones de poder y a un acceso desigual a los recursos vitales para la subsistencia. Pero también encontramos respuestas, como la desarrollada en el municipio de Saltillo al norte del país, en donde se ideó un modelo de Sistema agroindustrial como una opción para la generación de empleos, detener la desertificación y contrarrestar la migración en el desierto mexicano. El proyecto EACH-FOR (Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios) de la Comisión Europea, igualmente investigó el caso de los Estados Mejicanos de Chiapas y Tlaxcala, así como de países como Ecuador o Argentina.

Igualmente podemos observar como la migración como respuesta a desastres naturales y la promoción de los migrantes como agentes para el desarrollo de sus comunidades de origen y destino, también tuvo sus reflejos en el Programa de Migración Laboral, Temporal y Circular –MLTC que se desarrolló entre Colombia y España.

Y que requiere unas respuestas desde la protección de los más vulnerables…

Algunos ejemplos y respuestas que nos introducen en el problema, y nos proponen discutir y reconocer la necesidad de explorar mas a fondo la cuestión ya fuera desde la dimensión política como investigadora.

Y sobre todo desde una visión proactiva y entendiendo que el cambio climático y las migraciones derivadas del mismo son un problema de Derechos Humanos y Justicia Social.

Considerando la seguridad humana como un referente, que nos permita anticipar los riesgos que las poblaciones más vulnerables pueden sufrir, y generar herramientas desde la sostenibilidad y la resiliencia que permitan ejercer el derecho de las comunidades a permanecer en sus lugares de origen y enfrentar los efectos del cambio climático.

Pero igualmente desde la posibilidad de entender la migración como una estrategia de adaptación legítima y una solución potencial a los posibles desplazamientos que se pudieran dar como consecuencia del cambio climático, que ofrezcan la posibilidad de desplazarse a nuevas áreas y desarrollar modos de vida más sostenibles.