Climate Change and Migration in Latin America: Facing up to the challenge?

PUBLISHED IN INTERCAMBIO CLIMATICO 11 DECEMBER 2012

 
 

Climate refugees, climate-induced migration or environmental migrants are terms which, coined by various researchers and international organisations, have recently attracted a considerable amount of attention by the public, media and academics.

There is a variety of opinions when it comes to facing up to and defining a common terminology, with regards to the displacement of people for environmental or climatic reasons. This may to a certain extent make an initial approximation more difficult; although at the same time it enhances an understanding of the problem and the responses that one can give to it.

There are different  examples of this complexity including the aforementioned variety of opinions and definitions in its conceptualisation: a range in current and future forecasts of the number of displaced people, its forced or voluntary character, its identification as a response to sudden disasters or to the slow-onset of climate changes, its internal or cross-border character, or the existing difficulties in identifying environmental causes as a principal factor in displacements or as found deeper within a complex equation formed of environmental, social, political, economic or cultural factors.

Which needs to be confronted by institutions…

Yet it is a reality which exists, which is on the rise and parts from the logic: with greater consequences of climate change, there will be a greater impact on human populations.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies three principal causes which could potentially lead to an increase in the displacements brought about as a consequence of climate change: 1) a rise in the intensity of tropical hurricanes and the frequency of torrential rains and flooding; 2) a rise in the number of droughts, with the evaporation of water contributing to a decrease in soil moisture levels, often linked with the scarcity of food; and 3) a rise in sea levels resulting from the expansion of water, as well as the melting of the polar ice caps.

In Latin America we can recognise some of these causes:

-Changes in rainfall patterns and the loss of glaciers will significantly reduce the availability of water for human consumption, for agriculture and for energy generation.

-In dry zones, fertile lands will become more salty and sandy, meaning lower yields and productivity of livestock, which will undermine food security.

-In tropical rainforests, higher temperatures and lower subterranean water reserves will bring about a reduction in biodiversity, affecting the means of survival for many indigenous communities.

-The rise in sea levels will provoke more instances of flooding in low-lying areas, while the rise in ocean temperatures will reduce fish populations.

-Or indeed the consequences of the “El Niño” phenomenon and its opposite, “La Niña”.

Understanding migration as being a positive response and an adaptive strategy to climate change is an important starting point when it comes to coming up with responses. The IPCC makes a point of this idea, as it considers that the migration of individuals and communities or the relocation of settlements ought to be a potential adaptive response to the impacts of climate change.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) also outlines this route in its Cancun Adaptation Framework; Article 14, paragraph f) invites all parties to undertake “measures to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate change induced displacement, migration and planned relocation, where appropriate, at the national, regional and international levels”.

Which reinforces its significance with realities on the ground…

Evidence on the ground also helps us to approximate and better understand the issue in Latin America. And with a theory in mind, that may be able to explain us how social inequalities can influence this issue in its origins, character and impact, but also through the understanding of these social inequalities as a consequence of displacements related to environmental degradation and climate change.

In Latin America we see how one of the most affected regions is the Caribbean. Territorial limitations, extreme weather events, droughts or rising sea levels, together threaten the most impoverished economies and populations, and  can be added together as a factor of growing importance when reinforce social inequalities and the proneness to migration of its inhabitants.

Mexico is another country among those that suffer the most, but which also offers a greater number of studies about migratory patterns associated with climate change. In the state of Chiapas, environmental factors and the negative influence of climate change have sparked a wave of migration, not just within Mexico but also coming from several other Central American countries. These migration trends are also tied in with social or economic factors, and which results in unequal power relations and access to vital resources.

However, we can also find answers, such as that which has developed in the municipality of Saltillo, in the north of the country, where a model of agribusiness has been devised as a potential means of generating jobs, stopping the expansion of deserts, and counteracting against migration in the Mexican desert. The EACH-FOR (Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios) project drawn up by the European Commission also looked at the cases of the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tlaxcala, along with those of other countries such as Ecuador or Argentina.

Some other experiences can be considered in the study of migration as a response to natural disasters, and the holding up of the example of migrants as agents for development in their original or destination communities. This was reflected in the putting in place of the Temporary and Circular Labour Migration (TCLM) Programme, which was devised between Colombia and Spain.

And which requires answers from the perspective of the protection of the most vulnerable…

 Some examples and responses introduce us to the problem, and suggest that a discussion and recognition of the need to explore this question in more detail, whether from a political or investigative stance, is necessary.

And above all from a proactive perspective and understanding that climate change, and migration caused by it, is an issue of human rights and social justice.

Considering human security as a reference, which allows us to anticipate the dangers that the more vulnerable communities are likely to be in, and to develop sustainable and resilient ways which would allow communities to exercise their rights to remain in their original location and to confront the effects of climate change.

Equally, though, given the chance to understand migration as a legitimate adaptive strategy, and a potential solution to any displacements that may occur as a result of climate change, there may be a possibility of relocating to new areas and developing more sustainable ways of life.

COP15 ARTICLES: A feeble climate deal

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER. 20 DECEMBER 2009

“Every country is able to destroy the earth system in order to respect their own national sovereignty and the interests of their nationals, in spite that we live under the same physical system and we breathe the same air.” This should be the first article that should be draft from the conclusions of the COP15 in Copenhagen during December 2009.

As sad as it is. The classic 19th century European nation state definition has marked the guidelines of a decision that will affect the earth system, its life and its human population without distinction of their nationality, origin, religion, gender, race, or age, among those different factor that make the humans different from each other.

The summit has finish with a feeble climate deal. Big expectations for a decision that everybody knew that it was going to be cooked in the last hours. A massive movement of UN staff, country delegates, NGO´s activists, media, and the rest of devote professionals for a final unsatisfactory decision that, in fact, could have be taken in a, for example and in order to be climate friendly, videoconference between the leaders of the main polluters countries and blocks.

We, the frog, are still boiling. The issue was and is complex and one choice had to be made between two alternatives that can be explained in this way:

1. To live with the 100% of the privileges, that can be enjoyed in our carbon dependent modern society for the next, for example, two years and after that decided what to do if climate get worst or;
2. To adapt, NOW, our way of life by taking the risk of reduce our carbon emissions by 40% for the next 10 years with the trade-offs that this could suppose for our carbon related comfortable lives and the cost that this could suppose for our economies, jobs, political systems, etc., even with the safety that this decision will better assure the right of our descendants to live in a healthy planet.

Final question: From these two, what was the decision taken by world leaders last Friday night in Copenhagen?

COP15 ARTICLES: If climate were a bank, sure its was already save

Climate change negotiations in Copenhagen are part of a learning process that humanity is taking now after years, decades or, why not, centuries of misuse and look down on the earth system.

The result of this behavior can be compared with the boiled frog story: If we place a frog in boiling water, it will jump out when feeling the heat. But, if it’s placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. True or false, (do not try this at home, please) this anecdote it’s very useful when we analyze the human reaction when facing climate change and in general, the inability of people to react to significant changes when they occur gradually. In Copenhagen we (the frog) have tried to jump out of the saucepan.

The expected crisis unleashed at the COP15 during the morning and afternoon of Thursday 16th, reminds us again that too much has to be done in the future in order to lay the foundations of a learning process that can assure the future and well-being of next generations.

President of Bolivia, Evo Morales, reminded on his press conference that “earth can live without humans, but humans cannot live without earth.” Thus, “Not just human beings have rights, but the planet has rights”. “We are all interdependent. We now must begin to realise that the Earth does not belong to us,” he said. “It’s the other way around. We belong to the Earth.”

It could be a nice starting point for the future. Meanwhile, negotiations continued on Thursday in deadlock. The claims of developing countries are not being heard by developed countries. Just a last remark: 75-100 billion US dollars a year is needed to help poor nations to fight climate change. Iraq war has cost between 1.3 and 3 trillion dollars. $515.4 billions are the 2009 of the US Department of Defense.

COP15 ARTICLES: Queues, protests and ministers

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER. 16th DECEMBER 2009

Bella center is a small representation of the world and the mankind. Countries cooperating and arguing, people sharing their fears, dreams, hopes, interests or hates. Economic interests surrounding most of the conversations. Politicians, activists, journalist, celebrities, students, policemen, waiters, cleaners, etc., who care or not about the final result of the Conference.

In the world there also queues, as those since Monday are blocking the Bella Center, with participants just arriving being forced to spend between six to eight hours in registration lines at 0°C. At this stage of the Conference the total number of people requesting accreditation had hit more than 40,000, thus far exceeding the 15,000 capacity of the convention center, so entrance limitations have just started and more are expected for the high-level segment set to begin on Wednesday. Mayor restrictions will be applied to NGOs which reacted angrily to this and complained about being excluded from the process breaking one of the main principles repeated during the conference, “accountability, transparence and the role constructive and vital of civil society.”

Meanwhile, negotiations continue with the same pattern as the days before, with fear, mistrust and suspicion having come to rule – particularly between industrialized and developing countries. Substantive work on the long-term cooperative action (LCA) issues has been suspended at different stages due to the “deadlock” between these two main blocks.

With Ministers already involved in negotiations, protests raised again among developing countries as only LCA issues were to be discussed at the ministerial level while Kyoto Protocol commitments by develop countries were not planned to have enough attention at the ministerial level. This was solved by the presidency leading to an agreement to hold informal consultations on “crunch issues” under both negotiations tracks. “It looks like rich countries wanted to wash their hands with regard their commitments” criticized a delegate of the African Union.

COP15 ARTICLES: Drivers for Arab Involvement

 PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER. 15th DECEMBER 2009

The 2009 report on climate change of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development found that greenhouse emissions in the Arab World contribute merely 4.2% to the global emissions. However, the impact of climate change on the fragile environment of the region and its people is expected to be immense as its been experience in Syria:  change in natural weather patterns, scarcity of food and water, loss of coastal areas, disruption to ecosystems, and adverse effects on human health are just some of the direct threats.

In spite of this, and the related social and political consequences that climate change can have over the region, climate negotiations have been over the years underestimated by Arab countries, with the exception of the Arab oil producer’s countries which followed the negotiations in order to defend their own economic interests.

The small number of journalists, civil society organizations or clean energy specialists from the Arab and Middle East world, together with the weakness of the positions of most of their delegations does not look to be counteracted with the assistance of some of its top leaders: Mubarak, Bouteflika or Ahmadinejad together with Salam Fayyad from Palestine, Abbas El Fassi from Morocco, Prince Hamzah from Jordan, Hariri from Lebanon and the Ministers of Environment of Syria and Turkey among others, are expected to come to Copenhagen.

However, COP15 has to be a turning point. The Arab world cannot ignore a problem that will affect directly its whole 500 millions population. So the real work starts after the end of the conference: creation of special units at the top levels of governments with enough executive capacities to put countries on the track of low carbon sustainable systems; establishment of public-private partnerships aimed to implement the different financial mechanism that will be decided in COP15; training of senior staff in the different environmental, financial or political areas affected; awareness and education campaigns for the whole population, etc…  Are we ready?

COP15 ARTICLES: There is not Planet “B”

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER ON 14TH DECEMBER 2009

With the support of different events organized in other parts of the world, an estimated number of 100.000 demonstrators marched on Saturday from the Copenhagen city centre to the heavily fortified Convention centre where climate talks have been celebrating. The gathering was mostly festive in spite of different groups that tried to alter the peaceful sense of the march.

Most of the participants bore slogans related to global warming and calls for action of world leaders in other to resolve the vast differences that until now have been expressed in the different meetings. Clear messages, full of sense and love, oriented to raise a common concern that could change the negotiations and the way the world is moving towards an unprecedented climate crisis.

Meanwhile, and with no meetings scheduled for Sunday, talks will restart on Monday with delegations completely structured around their top officials. Until now, parties had mainly repeated their “well-known positions”. The European Union is one of the negotiating blocks that defend a single agreement. Developing countries defend a two tracks agreement – Kyoto Protocol with deep emissions cuts for the rich countries and a less binding accord for the poor- differing of the European proposal as they consider that this could mean an evasion of the historical responsibility by developed countries as mayor emitters of greenhouse gases since the XIX century. On the other hand, and as the United States will not ratified Kyoto Protocol with the rest of develop countries, most of the developing countries are not willing to assume binding commitments, especially emergent economies as China, India or Brazil, without a clear leadership of industrialized countries.

With little movement during the first week on some of the key issues, many delegates were thinking about the way forward: “We must work hard so that by this time next week, we can celebrate a fair and ambitious agreement: the momentum generated for this conference is simply unprecedented and far too valuable to lose,” commented one slightly concerned but determined party.

COP15 ARTICLES: A LONG AND HARD WAY OF LEARNING

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER. 13 DECEMBER 2009

Let’s imagine that climates change talks are an envelope, in which its forehead it’s written “environment”, “climate change” or lets say “the future of human civilization”. But, when we open it, surprisingly it can be see that what is inside the envelope is a full range of figures, commitments and financial agreements that are, in fact, talking about world economy and trade.

Because may be, climate talks are just that, economy talks and may be is the only way by which humankind is currently able to face its self-inflicted damage to the earth system. However, understand the future of earth as a single economic issue is causing a deep distrustful and unenthusiastic feeling among participants in the conference.

Thus, and after one week of meetings, a perception among the different participants of the conference, parties, non-governmental organizations, journalist or academics, is the existence of many gaps that impede to give a sense of totality to the negotiations and the whole issue of climate change. A gap between what science says and policymakers; between politicians and society; between what is been saying outside the plenary of the conference and the negotiating parties; between what developed countries offer and developing countries claim. Something is missed. Dessima Williams, Chairman of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) expressed her concerns on this regard: “We must rebalance the way we live… in the field of economy, ecology, ethics… a shift must occur…”

As we wait for the second week and the expected arrival of more than 100 heads of government who own the key for a successful financial agreement in the fields of adaptation, mitigation or technology transfer among others, voices of developing countries start to launch messages that make more understandable the aim of this conference, to improve life of poor people under a sustainable environment: “while you are meeting, I am working in a evacuation plan for my island”, “the grassroots of climate change is the historical responsibility”, “Africa is dying… my house is leaking… we appeal to you to discuss…”, “we appeal to President Obama to act, as President of the Americans,… and the Africans”.

COP15 ARTICLES: Decreasing temperatures, raising tensions in COP15

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER. 10 DECEMBER 2009

While the temperature in Copenhagen is little above freezing, the atmosphere at the Bella Center, venue of COP15, is heating up amid confirmations that more than 100 government heads will attend the high-level segment of the conference on 17-18 December to push for an agreement.

The preliminary findings from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report, which final version is expected in March, have shocked even the biggest alarmist, with the WMO reporting evidence of global warming. Findings suggest that this year is likely to be ranked as one of the hottest 10 since 1850, and with the current decade being also the hottest on record.

 

In contrast, however, top leaders remain optimistic following leaks of the expected final text, which has dominated the every day agenda. But differences among the G77, a group of 130 mostly developing countries, including Syria are growing wider on almost all crucial issues, making it increasingly difficult for the climate talks to produce a consensus. A major division within the group is between poor countries and nations with rapidly evolving economies, but interests also vary between countries with and without oil production and countries with and without large forests.

Regardless, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon optimistically predicted on Tuesday, that a robust agreement to combat climate change will be reached in Copenhagen and implemented immediately. “From all corners of the globe we see unprecedented momentum for a deal,” the UN chief told reporters at UN headquarters. “I’m encouraged and I’m optimistic.”

But leaks in the final text are also playing a role, with the British newspaper “The Guardian” claiming to have an official Danish proposal for a compromise text which “shows deep unease” among G77 block.

COP15 ARTICLES: Saudis economical interests as of the main points for a future success of Copenhagen

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER. 9 DECEMBER 2009

With the America’s Environmental Protection Agency announcing that greenhouse gases are a danger to human health, President Obama has changed his plans for attendance to Copenhagen from the first week of the conference, following his trip to Oslo for tomorrow’s Nobel Prize ceremony, delaying his attendance to the last and decisive days of the conference the 18th of December.

As everything of significance to the treaty is announced late in the meetings, often on the last day, it looks that this change of plans can suggest that a “deal” is already in the bag, and Obama want to be part of a decision and a picture that will mark the beginning of a serious and binding commitment by every world nation in the coming years.

US President ran into office with the clear idea to support green energy in order to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and reduces the use of fossil fuels, also with the objective to gain energetic independence.

However, Obama’s energetic independence objectives have been considered as unrealistic by Saudis and arguments have been confront by the Islamic Kingdom in order to put aside the President’s rhetoric of energy independence and instead recognize interdependence of energy producers and consumers.

With a position considered for many parties involved in the negotiations as harmful and against the general interest aimed to combat global warming and with a “long history of playing an obstructionist role at climate conferences” Saudi Arabia is one of the main players in COP15. Its influence over the rest of Arab countries, and its importance as the first world oil producer, together with its relation with the United States makes of its position one of the determinant factors for a possible success of the negotiations.

Through a quiet campaign during these and other negotiations, Saudis with its lead negotiator Mohammad Al-Sabban has demand, that oil-producing nations get special financial assistance if a new climate pact calls for substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels. Specifically, Saudi Arabia wants access to funds within an existing UN scheme dedicated to combat climate change effects considering that “Adaptation is not only to the impact of climate change but also the impact of climate policies.” This position has raised the critics of the least developing countries which considered Saudi position as unfair with those populations that have not the revenues of oil to fight climate change.

COP15 ARTICLES: COPENHAGEN: LAST CHANCE TO SAVE WORLD CLIMATE

PUBLISHED IN BALADNA SYRIAN NEWSPAPER. 8 DECEMBER 2009

During the first day of the historic UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, the UN’s top climate change official expressed confidence that the meeting would deliver a comprehensive, ambitious and effective international climate change deal.

After the wave of skepticism which swept the international community in the last few weeks, a fresh enthusiasm has emerged on the inaugural day of the historic UN Climate Change Conference. Yvo de Boer, the UN’s top climate change official expressed confidence that the meeting would deliver a comprehensive and effective climate change deal and praised the numerous emissions targets which have been pledged in the run-up to the summit. 

 “Negotiators now have the clearest signal ever from world leaders t craft solid proposals to implement rapid action, “ de Boer said. There are three courses of action governments must agree on in the coming weeks: implementation of immediate measures; ambitious commitments to cut emissions, and a shared vision on a universal low-emissions future.

There are three layers of action that governments must agree to in the course of the coming two weeks: fast and effective implementation of immediate action on climate change; ambitious commitments to cut and limit emissions, including start-up funding and a long-term funding commitment; and a long-term shared vision on a low-emissions future for all.

For 2010, immediate action have to focused on reducing emissions, adapting to the inevitable effects of climate change, delivering adequate finance, technology, reducing emission from deforestation in developing countries and capacity-building.

Syria is part of the group of developing countries which insist that developed nations, historically responsible for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions, should bear the brunt of responsibility for global warming. Copenhagen provides a good and maybe the only chance for Syria to find sufficient sponsorship and support needed for it to evolve into a modern low carbon economy. A strong political commitment is the key factor underlying the more evident environmental consequences of climate change, such as drought. If Syria can show a willingness, rather than just a need for cooperation, Copenhagen could be just the beginning of a bright future. 
 

EXPERIENCE, CULTURE AND TRADITION FACING CLIMATE CHANGE

WRITTEN IN AUGUST 2009 FOR THE SYRIAN ENGLISH NEWSPAPER "BALADNA"

Nobel prize-winning physicist in 1997 and current US energy secretary, Steven Chu, has a cheap and easy solution to fight climate change. Paint the roofs white and drive "cool" cars on pale-coloured roads.

These proposals were launched in London at the end of last may, in a climate change symposium hosted by Prince Charles and attended by peace, literature, chemistry and physics laureates among other outstanding personalities.

Mr. Chu maintains that clean and pale colors, reflects sunlight and would contribute to fight global warming. He also affirms that if all surfaces around the world were white, it would be reached a Carbon emissions reduction, equivalent to the total amount of emissions that could be obtain if world traffic were forbidden for the next eleven years.

Scientific explanation is based on the capacity of painted surface in clean colors to reflects more solar radiation to the space, and reduce at the same time, the quantity of energy needed for cooling buildings.

Mr. Chu recognizes being influenced by Art Rosenfeld, member of the Energy Commission of California who was also inspired by the traditional Mediterranean architecture, with the terraces and buildings of the Balearic and Greek islands and most of the countries surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea.

Although this proposal is not very original, and probably Mr. Chu or Mr. Rosenfeld are not trying to be specially innovators with this, at least this has a lot of common sense. In this manner, we can find solutions to climate problems that have always being there and are easy to put into practice.

Considering climate change as a real and unavoidable, and in order to face the challenges related, we could consider this proposal as a good starting point for countries suffering extreme weather conditions to think about which role they should take in order to adapt to global warming. At this respect, Arab and Mediterranean countries has much to say on the subject.

The international scientific community working in the study of the adaptation process to environmental changes says that societies have inherent capacities to adapt to climate change. In fact, human adaptation to climate change has to be based in the combination of knowledge of local systems and cultures, with the scientific knowledge.

Examples like white painted roofs can lead us to analyze the history and culture of countries in the Arab and Mediterranean Regions and how, in spite of weather conditions, they have achieve during the centuries a high degree of adaptation and development that could be consider as an example for other world regions that are starting to suffer an increasing temperature.

However, experience, culture, or adaptative capacity has nothing to do without coordination, awareness, open-mindedness or the capacity to understand what climate change is. And, as one of the most important factor, these capacities are bound up in the capacity to act collectively. So, two critical needs in the region are political will for environmental legislation, and the urgency for integrated action among academics, activists, and policy-makers as said Dr. Nadim Farajalla of the American University of Beirut (AUB), faculty director of the new Research and Policy Forum on Climate Change and the Environment in the Arab World.

Thus, Academic-Government-Civil interaction is critical to achieve good policies, strengthen the political will to move in this direct, and learn and implement the societal and cultural deep knowledge that has been accumulated for centuries as some of our ancestors did when they decided to paint their houses white.

Cambio climático y migraciones en América Latina ¿Afrontamos el desafío?

TEXTO APARECIDO EN INTERCAMBIO CLIMATICO EL 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2012

Refugiados climáticos, migraciones inducidas por el medioambiente o migrantes medioambientales son términos que, acuñados por diferentes investigadores y Organismos Internacionales, han recabado un considerable grado de atención por parte de público, medios de comunicación o académicos en los últimos tiempos.

La diversidad de opiniones a la hora de afrontar y definir una terminología común con respecto al desplazamiento de personas por cuestiones medioambientales o climáticas, podrían de algún modo dificultar una aproximación inicial, pero del mismo modo enriquecen la compresión del problema y las respuestas que al mismo se pueden dar.

Ejemplos de esta complejidad pueden ser la ya comentada diversidad de opiniones y definiciones en su conceptualización, variedad en las estimaciones presentes y futuras de desplazados, su carácter forzado o voluntario, su identificación como respuesta a desastres repentinos o a la evolución lenta del cambio ambiental, su carácter interno o transfronterizo, o las dificultades existentes al identificar las causas medioambientales como un factor principal en el desplazamiento o uno mas dentro de una compleja ecuación formada por factores medioambientales, sociales, políticos, económicos o culturales.

Que debe ser enfrentado por parte de las instituciones…

Pero es una realidad que existe, que va en aumento y que parte de la lógica – a mayores consecuencias del cambio climático, mayor impacto sobre las poblaciones humanas.

El Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC, por sus siglas en inglés), identifica tres principales causas que potencialmente pueden llevar a generar un mayor numero de desplazamientos como consecuencia del cambio climático: 1) el aumento de la fuerza de los huracanes tropicales y la frecuencia de las lluvias torrenciales y las inundaciones 2) el aumento de las sequías, con la evaporación del agua contribuyendo a una disminución de la humedad del suelo, a menudo asociada con la escasez de alimentos, y 3) el aumento del nivel del mar resultante a partir de la expansión del agua, así como de la fusión de los hielos polares.

En Latinoamérica identificamos algunas de estas causas:

- Los cambios en los patrones de precipitaciones y la pérdida de los glaciares reducirá significativamente la disponibilidad de agua para el consumo humano, la agricultura y la generación de energía.

- En las zonas secas, la tierra agrícola se volverá mas salada y arenosa, con rendimientos más bajos y una menor productividad del ganado, lo que socavara la seguridad alimentaría.

- En los bosques tropicales, las altas temperaturas y la pérdida de agua subterránea reducirá la biodiversidad, afectando los medios de subsistencia de muchas comunidades indígenas.

- El aumento del nivel del mar provocará más inundaciones en las zonas bajas, y el aumento de la temperatura de las aguas disminuirán las poblaciones de peces.

- O las consecuencias del fenómeno “El Niño” y su fenómeno opuesto “La Niña”.

Entender las migraciones como una respuesta positiva y una estrategia adaptativa al cambio climático es un importante punto de partida a la hora de generar respuestas. El IPCC incide en esta idea considerando que la migración de individuos y comunidades o la reubicación de los asentamientos debe ser una respuesta adaptativa potencial a los impactos del cambio climático.

Y la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático (CMNUCC), traza igualmente este camino desde el Marco de Adaptación de Cancún, y su Artículo 14, párrafo f) que propone a las partes “…la adopción de medidas para mejorar el entendimiento, la coordinación y la cooperación en lo que respecta al  desplazamiento, la migración y el traslado planificado como consecuencia del cambio climático, cuando corresponda,  a nivel  nacional, regional e internacional.”

Que refuerza su importancia con las realidades desde el terreno…

Las evidencias sobre el terreno nos ayudan también en la aproximación al problema y su mejor comprensión en América Latina. Y con una tesis en mente, que nos explique como las desigualdades sociales influyen en la génesis, el carácter y la incidencia, pero también son una consecuencia de los desplazamientos ligados a la degradación medioambiental y al cambio climático.

En América Latina podemos encontrar como una de las zonas mas afectadas es la región Caribeña. Las limitaciones territoriales, los eventos climáticos extremos, las sequías o el aumento del nivel del mar, amenazan en conjunto a las economías y poblaciones más empobrecidas y se añaden como un factor cada vez de mayor importancia a la hora de reforzar, las desigualdades sociales y la tendencia a la migración de sus habitantes.

México es también uno de los países que más sufre, pero que también ofrece un mayor número de estudios sobre los procesos migratorios relacionados con el clima. En el Estado de Chiapas, los factores medioambientales y la negativa influencia del cambio climático estimulan una migración, tanto interna como proveniente de otros países de Centroamérica, que también esta relacionada con factores sociales o económicos, y se traduce en unas relaciones de poder y a un acceso desigual a los recursos vitales para la subsistencia. Pero también encontramos respuestas, como la desarrollada en el municipio de Saltillo al norte del país, en donde se ideó un modelo de Sistema agroindustrial como una opción para la generación de empleos, detener la desertificación y contrarrestar la migración en el desierto mexicano. El proyecto EACH-FOR (Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios) de la Comisión Europea, igualmente investigó el caso de los Estados Mejicanos de Chiapas y Tlaxcala, así como de países como Ecuador o Argentina.

Igualmente podemos observar como la migración como respuesta a desastres naturales y la promoción de los migrantes como agentes para el desarrollo de sus comunidades de origen y destino, también tuvo sus reflejos en el Programa de Migración Laboral, Temporal y Circular –MLTC que se desarrolló entre Colombia y España.

Y que requiere unas respuestas desde la protección de los más vulnerables…

Algunos ejemplos y respuestas que nos introducen en el problema, y nos proponen discutir y reconocer la necesidad de explorar mas a fondo la cuestión ya fuera desde la dimensión política como investigadora.

Y sobre todo desde una visión proactiva y entendiendo que el cambio climático y las migraciones derivadas del mismo son un problema de Derechos Humanos y Justicia Social.

Considerando la seguridad humana como un referente, que nos permita anticipar los riesgos que las poblaciones más vulnerables pueden sufrir, y generar herramientas desde la sostenibilidad y la resiliencia que permitan ejercer el derecho de las comunidades a permanecer en sus lugares de origen y enfrentar los efectos del cambio climático.

Pero igualmente desde la posibilidad de entender la migración como una estrategia de adaptación legítima y una solución potencial a los posibles desplazamientos que se pudieran dar como consecuencia del cambio climático, que ofrezcan la posibilidad de desplazarse a nuevas áreas y desarrollar modos de vida más sostenibles.

CLIMATE CHANGE: PERCEPTIONS, HUMAN BEING AND TIME

WRITTEN IN AUGUST 2009 FOR THE SYRIAN ENGLISH NEWSPAPER "BALADNA"

Since global warming reached general public interest, different opinions and positions, for and against, had been expressed among scientist, politicians and population itself. However, and thanks mainly to the different reports and conclusions of the IPCC, it exists clear consensus about the seriousness of the issue.

Most of the world governments have assumed these warnings and are ready, in theory, to work with the aim to avoid a climatic debacle, as some of the climate model data confirms.

However, this so-called strong political action it looks more a way to escape of the growing pressure for solutions by public opinion, than a sincere and fully aware commitment. Political time periods are too short in order to face successfully earth system problems and human time perceptions are also too limited to understand these changes… so we prefer to exhaust earth system resources and continue and enjoy with our limited existence on earth.

Arrived at this point, we suggest reflection about this human time perception. We, human beings, do not share the same vital times as the terrestrial system could have. Thus, what we could consider a slight increase of the temperature, for the earth system it means a radical and dramatic change. In particular, if we consider that temperatures have been maintained stabilized for thousands, if not millions of years.

To make understandable this perception to politicians and population it’s quite complicated.  Governments are working to solve the problems and needs of their populations under a temporary and limited range of time, prevailing, in most cases, immediate needs over other future and long expected problems. For populations, and especially during this era of globalization and consumerism, the dream is “bigger is better”.

Under these basic considerations it’s almost unrealistic to think that human beings will stop doing all of those things that are ruining the environment, as they are so needed to have a pleasant stay in earth. Drastic carbon emission reductions will suppose in most cases sacrifices on part of the population, but we are now conditioned to this way of life and we don’t want to lose these privileges even for a week. A solution does not look easy to find.

In these pages we do not have the key to achieve a sustainable development and a society more aware about the global warming issue. However, we will try to inform about environment and climate change, from a perspective that will combine information, advises and perspective in order to collaborate in the development of a society more willing to leave to the next generations a better place to live.

LA POLITICA ESPAÑOLA EN ENERGIAS RENOVABLES EN EVIDENCIA: DE CALIFORNIA A ALBURQUERQUE

Un reciente estudio realizado por el WorldWatch Institute, una de las instituciones mundiales más importantes en el ámbito de la investigación medioambiental, considera que el valor total de los subsidios para los combustibles fósiles a nivel global puede llegar al billón de dólares en 2012. En contraste con estas cifras, el total de subvenciones para las energías renovables fue de 66 mil millones de dólares en 2010 con un incremento de un 10% con respecto al año anterior, y con dos tercios de estas subvenciones destinándose a recursos eléctricos renovables y el tercio restante a los biocombustibles.

A pesar de este diferencia significativa, el informe también avisa que si adaptamos estos subsidios a kilowatios/hora en base a los datos de 2009, encontramos que las subvenciones a las energías renovables suponen entre 1,7 y 1,5 centavos de dolar por kilovatio-hora, mientras que los subsidios a los combustibles fósiles se estiman en alrededor de 0.1-0.7 centavos $ por kWh.

Sin embargo, el informe también prevé que los costos unitarios de las subvenciones para las energías renovables disminuirán a medida que las tecnologías se vuelvan más eficientes, al mismo tiempo que vayan aumentando los precios de la electricidad y se incrementen los precios en el transporte de combustibles.

Por su parte, la Administraciónde Información Energética de Estados Unidos (EIA) , organismo de estadística y de análisis del Departamento de Energía de los Estados Unidos muestra como el aumento en la producción energética del país durante el primer semestre de 2012 estas dominado por el gas natural y las energías renovables, en donde de los diez Estados con los mayores niveles de adición de generación energética, la mayoría de estas nuevas capacidades utilizaban gas natural o fuentes de energías renovables. Igualmente desde Enovamarkets se informa que la energía eólica representó en 2011 el 32% de la nueva capacidad eléctrica en EEUU, lo que esta suponiendo hasta ahora “inversiones de casi 184.000 millones de euros en el país”.

Frente a  las señales positivas, pero aun no suficientes que pueden venir de diferentes mercados de renovables como el americano, el escenario climático global continúa sumido en el pesimismo que supone el aumento de los efectos del cambio climático. La Agencia Internacional de la Energía así lo asume, advirtiendo que sin un cambio radical de la política energética, no será posible conseguir el objetivo de limitar el aumento de temperatura a 2 grados.

En España la línea política del gobierno de Mariano Rajoy no parece tomar ese camino y desde la propia Comisión Europea se avisa al Gobierno español ya sea directamente: "El sector energético español tiene que ser tecnológicamente neutro y no debe crear un trato desfavorable para los proyectos energéticos renovables" tal y como ha dicho el Comisario Europeo Gunter Oettinger. O a través de menciones mas sobrentendidas: "en algunos Estados miembros los cambios registrados en los regímenes de ayuda han sido poco transparentes, se han introducido bruscamente y, en ocasiones, se han impuesto incluso con carácter retroactivo".

La lucha y la defensa de las energías renovables en España se puede ejemplificar en la huelga de hambre que ante las puertas del Ministerio de Industria ha llevado a cabo el Alcalde de la localidad extremeña de Alburquerque, Ángel Vadillo. 

La derogación de un proyecto de energía termosolar con el que contaba para el futuro del municipio, que con un 42% de paro veía en las renovables su única tabla de salvación, se esfumó con la paralización por parte del Gobierno con el decreto ley 1/2012, de 27 de enero.

Una decisión que condena a un pueblo a la emigración y a la subsistencia, pero que también nos recuerda que España en los últimos meses ha pasado de liderar el mercado de las energías renovables a salir de la lista de los 10 paises mas atractivos para invertir en renovables.

ALGUNOS APUNTES SOBRE EL INCENDIO DE VALENCIA (I)

Aquí van algunos datos sobre el Incendio de Valencia que pueden servir para seguir y comprender mejor las consecuencias post-incendio.

-       48.500 hectáreas es  la cifra oficial de superficie quemada en los dos incendios. 28.643 en el de Dos Aguas y 19.940 en el de Andilla. Según la según la NASA, la superficie afectada supera las 90.000 hectareas.

  

-       Al menos 22 municipios se han visto afectados por los incendios, más de 4.000 vecinos fueron desalojados.

-       Tanto el Ministro de Interior como el Presidente de la Generalitat Valenciana han expresado que el objetivo es que los afectados reciban "cuanto antes las ayudas de las que se han hecho acreedores". y que la administración no les va a "fallar" porque "es momento de tender la ayuda a las personas" que ha sufrido "este accidente de la naturaleza", que considera que les ha "examinado" y han podido responder.

-       El terremoto de Lorca es un precedente cercano en cuanto a esa supuesta “rapidez” por parte de la administración a la hora de ayudar a los damnificados. Desde diferentes ámbitos se acusa al Gobierno Regional Murciano de autofinanciarse con los 40 millones de euros que deberían utilizarse para reconstruir Lorca.

-       Un coronel del ejército fallecido el pasado lunes tras sufrir un accidente con el helicóptero que él mismo comandaba mientras que otros dos pilotos continúan hospitalizados, el primero grave en reanimación y el segundo, en planta y con una evolución favorable.

-       Debido a la crisis en el sector agrícola son muchos los agricultores que han abandonado sus campos en los últimos años, muchas de estas parcelas se encuentran llenas de maleza que junto con las altas temperaturas y la baja humedad son una amenaza para los municipios de la zona.

-       Una de los pueblos afectados es Dos Aguas. La administración local intentó, sin éxito, conseguir la cobertura legal necesaria para ampliar su vertedero. No pudo llevarse a cabo porque una parte de la instalación afectaría a terrenos forestales quemados. Ahora  además de tener la cobertura legal tienen bastante espacio para ampliarlo.

     Y es que en Junio de 2011, El President Alberto Fabra impulsó una modificación en la ley para que se permitiera construir en superficies forestales previamente quemadas. 

-       El incendio como primera fase de una promoción urbanística. Tanto en Valencia como en otros puntos de España asistimos a un nuevo fenómeno llamado “Neoladrillismo” del que ya hablaremos desde sus diferentes acepciones.

-       Con respecto a los medios y a sus recortes, nos encontramos que en Marzo de 2010, se despidieron a 200 brigadistas, pero se compraron  115 coches todo terreno de lujo inadecuados para el trabajo de una brigada forestal.

-       En Agosto de 2010 se destinó parte del presupuesto de bomberos a subvencionar a la fundación que organiza la visita del Papa a Valencia. 

-       Y finalmente durante este verano, el conceller de Gobernacion Serafín Castellano, ha reconocido 10 millones de euros y mil personas menos para la prevención de incendios. 

-       Las consecuencias del incendio, su impacto económico y los medios y ayudas que se deben emplear se espera que superen ampliamente los recortes que se han llevado a cabo durante este tiempo.

Los hay que cuentan la historia como una película de catástrofes, pero de bajo presupuesto, cutre, española, de aquí, nuestra.